In the first edition of CTW for Homeland Security Leader, I discussed the importance of and the need to focus some of our GWOT resources on Yemen. In the February 5th edition of Terrorism Focus by the Jamestown Foundation, Michael Scheuer, author of the new book “Marching Toward Hell: America and Islam After Iraq.” and former Chief of the bin Laden Unit at the Counter-Terrorist Center from 1996 to 1999 outlines the need in greater detail in his article entitled ” Yemens Role in al-queda’s Strategy. He points out three basic issues that need to be in the minds of our GWOT strategist.
One is that Yemen has played a role historically in the formation and growth of Al-Qaeda. From the days of the Soviet invasion and occupation of Afghanistan where many anti-Soviet Islamic soldiers came from Yemen to the early 1990’s where Al-Qaeda conducted its first attack on U.S. forces on their way to Somalia from Yemen to the attack on the Cole where 80% of those involved in the attacks where Saudi’s of Yemen origin to the present day where Yemeni’s are volunteering to fight U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Mr. Scheurer continues his article by showing the geographic importance of Yemen which is the second issue of importance. Yemen played an important role in the early years of Al-Qaeda when Bin Laden was in Sudan. Guns and fighters flowed from Yemen to Sudan and from Sudan into Yemen to cross into Saudi Arabia. Yemen also has been a staging ground for Al-Qaeda operations and movements into other parts of East Africa. According to Mr. Scheuer, it also is a place for rest and rearming for fighters returning from tours in Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia.
The third issue relates to the possibility that Yemen might be a possible refuse of last resort for Al-Qaeda and Bin Laden if they are forced to flea South Asia. With the possible rapprochement between the Yemen government and militants, Yemen might end up being a new Afghanistan from the 1990’s where Al-Qaeda can operate freely and with impunity.
As was reported earlier in the week, Imad Mughniyah the Deputy Secretary General of Hezbollah , and one of the worlds most wanted fugitives was assassinated Tuesday by a car-bomb in Syria. As a result, according to the LA Times, The FBI and Department of Homeland Security sent a bulletin Friday to state and local law enforcement authorities advising them to watch for potential retaliatory strikes by Hezbollah. Although the FBI thinks that retaliatory strikes in the U.S. are unlikely, the United States needs to be prepared and ready for anything especially after Hezbollah’s leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah told thousands of his followers that the killing of Mughniyah merited a violent response because it occurred outside the “natural battlefield” of Israel and Lebanon. “You have crossed the borders,” he said, in a reference to Israel and supporters of the Jewish state. “With this murder, its timing, location and method — Zionists, if you want this kind of open war, let the whole world listen: Let this war be open.” He mentioned the United States in his speech by saying ” Because we are in a real bloody battle defending our nation, our holy places and our dignity in the face of all the greed and aggression posed by “Israel”, the United States as well as those who stand behind them.”
According to the AP, in an article by Lara Jakes Jordan, “the FBI has put its domestic terror squads on the alert for any threats against synagogues and other potential Jewish targets in the United States following the killing of a Hezbollah commander”.
Obviously, U.S. intelligence, law enforcement and security officials need to take precautions against any direct threat against U.S. interests abroad and in the United States. This would be the intelligent thing to do in the short run in order to protect against any potential ‘terrorist’ attack. In the long run, the United States needs to develop a more comprehensive approach when dealing with Hezbollah. A comprehensive approach would have to take into consideration that although Hezbollah is listed as a ‘terrorist’ group by the U.S , we are joined by only 5 other countries in that designation including the UK, Canada and Australia. According to Wikipedia;
” The European Union does not list Hezbollah, or any group within it, as a “terrorist” organization,[171][172] but on March 10, 2005, the European Parliament passed a non-binding resolution recognizing “clear evidence” of “terrorist activities by Hezbollah”[173] and urging the EU Council to brand Hezbollah a terrorist organization and EU governments to place Hezbollah on their terrorist blacklists, as the bloc did with the Palestinian Hamas group in 2003.[173] The Council, however, has been reluctant to do this, because France, Spain, and Britain fear that such a move would further damage the prospects for Middle East peace talks.[173] The EU Council designates the late Imad Mugniyah as a terrorist, claiming he is Hezbollah’s “Senior Intelligence Officer”.[171][174] In the midst of the 2006 conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, Russia’s government declined to include Hezbollah in a newly-released list of terrorist organizations, with Yuri Sapunov, the head of anti-terrorism for the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, saying that they list only organizations which represent “the greatest threat to the security of our country”.[175] “
One of the challenges faced by the international community in general and the United States in particular is that Hezbollah both addresses legitimate issues within the political system in Lebanon i.e. protection of Shia minority in Lebanon and disputed terroritories with Israel i.e. they are seen by many as a legitimate resistance force against an occupying army ( Shebaa Farms )and they are an active political party that holds a certain amount of power within Lebanon. They also provide social services, run hospitals, and provide educational programs in Lebanon. Since for the most part, perception is reality, the United States, has to deal with these facts when it thinks through how best to deal with the challenges of Hezbollah in and of itself and in the context of the broader regional issues such as Iran, Syria and the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. It is not useful in developing our counter-terrorism strategy to view Hezbollah in black and white terms only i.e. only a ‘terrorist’ group. One of the ways the United States can deal with the challenge of Hezbollah, if it is decided that it is in our national interest to do so, is to;
work to develop their constituents thus helping to remove their base of support,
while working with the international community to contain and isolate certain segments of the movement,
while helping the more ‘moderate’ segments within the organization and the Shia population to move beyond their socio-centric operating word-views into a more world-centric or at least broader socio-centric world-view.
This would be part of a ‘hearts and minds’ long term strategy that would also include more immediate military, law enforcement and intelligence operations as needed.
